On Thursday 12 December, we hosted the webinar “Trump and Tariffs: A Global Perspective of What Lies Ahead”. The session focused on the potential tariff impacts of President-Elect Trump’s second term in office, giving a global perspective on what to look out for, and how best to prepare.
Speakers from across the globe discussed the potential impacts in their respective jurisdictions, the key takeaways of which can be found here.
Highlights from our US speakers Chandri Navarro and Eunkyung Kim Shin are set out below, and can be heard here. To listen to the full webinar, please click here.
Highlights from the US
- Trade will be a key focus of Trump’s second administration, with retaliatory measures expected from adversaries and allies alike.
- Starting January 20th, the first day of the new Trump administration, a 10% tariff is anticipated on Chinese imports. This tariff could potentially rise to as high as 60%, including goods shipped from Chinese-owned ports in other countries. Additionally, tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% are expected for imports from all other countries.
- 25% tariffs have also been proposed on imports from Mexico and Canada from January 20th. The main policy drivers for these are tied to immigration and illicit imports, however the actual tariffs could impact other merchandise.
- 100% tariffs have been suggested on imports from countries that have abandoned the US dollar.
- Tariffs could apply even if a Free Trade Agreement preference is available (e.g., the 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada, despite being parties to the USMCA).
- Trump has a number of potential tools for imposing tariffs, with some requiring no advance legal notice or involvement of the US Congress. A number of recent key appointments to the Executive Branch are also pro-tariff.
- Increased forced labor enforcement (especially under the UFLPA) is expected, including further designations to the UFLPA Entity List, as well as tensions regarding labor provisions under the USMCA.
Mitigation measures
Key takeaways for businesses include implementing due diligence on global supply chains, with a particular emphasis on targeted jurisdictions such as China and the USMCA countries. While Trump’s second term will be unpredictable, key mitigation strategies can be implemented, such as relocation of production (subject to anti-circumvention rules – see our blog post on the recent ECJ case on anti-circumvention of tariffs), custom valuation efficiency maximization strategies (e.g., first sale program, intercompany global transfer pricing and customs valuation reviews), considering contractual clauses and exclusions, as well as possible lobbying. For further information, and keep up to date on all developments, please see the Import and Trade Remedies blog.
